India's GDP growth to be hit says CEA Subramanian
India's growth is set to fall in the coming months as coronavirus-induced lockdowns and restrictions continue to disrupt economic activity, affecting a wide swathe areas, from shops and restaurants to street hawkers to factories, the country's top-most policy adviser said.
"See, the coronavirus is a completely unanticipated natural disaster. And it's a period of significant uncertainty. So, I think it will be difficult to say what will be the actual impact. In in any episode like this, oftentimes, the uncertainty stems from unknown unknowns. So, putting a magnitude on it is very difficult," Chief Economic Adviser KV Subramanian
He said that FY20 growth would be affected by the March numbers and that it should get resolved by the month of April.
"We have to wait and watch. This is a situation that is evolving," he said.
The FY21 numbers would get impacted by the April number. However, taking a parallel from cricket, Subramanian explained that in twenty-twenty match, though one can start the first over slower, it can be accelerated later.
"When the bowling is tough, you should actually watch and play. So, April may be that period. I think it is fair to say that every country is going to expect the impact of the coronavirus outbreak, and we will also. We cannot be an exception," he said.
According to government data released in February, India's GDP grew 4.7 percent in the October-December quarter of 2019-20. GDP growth in the previous quarter had been revised to 5.1 percent.
India's GDP grew 4.5 percent in July-September 2019, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2012-13. The economic slowdown came at the back of 5 percent GDP growth recorded in April-June and 7.1 percent in July-September last year.
The Economic Survey 2019-20 has pegged India's economic growth at 6-6.5 percent in 2020-21.